In July 2026, the olive oil market is undergoing a period of stabilization following two years of high volatility. The recovery in production in Spain and the rest of the Mediterranean has eased pressure on olive oil prices, although the profitability of olive groves remains one of the sector’s main challenges.
The price of olive oil is one of the indicators that attracts the most interest among consumers, distributors, importers, and professionals in the agri-food sector. After several years marked by high volatility, market conditions have changed significantly, bringing the focus back to a key question: What is the actual price of olive oil, and what factors will determine its evolution over the coming months?
The answer does not depend solely on Spanish production. Factors such as weather conditions, harvests in major producing countries, inventory levels, international demand, production costs, and the global economic situation directly influence price trends and the competitiveness of olive oil in international markets.
After the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years were marked by a significant drop in production due to drought, the recovery in harvests during the 2024/25 marketing year has helped to partially ease the strain on supply and foster a gradual normalization of olive oil prices. However, the market remains particularly sensitive to any changes in production forecasts or demand trends.
In this article, we analyze the current state of the olive oil market in July 2026, review price trends over the past few years, explain the main factors influencing prices, and offer an informed outlook on the prospects for the upcoming season.
Factors influencing fluctuations in the price of olive oil
The price of olive oil is determined by multiple variables that interact with one another and evolve depending on market conditions. However, not all of these factors carry the same weight at any given time. Their influence varies depending on product availability, production expectations, changes in demand, and the international economic context.
By the end of 2024, in a scenario marked by still-limited production and high production costs, inflation and rising energy costs played a particularly significant role in price formation. By July 2026, the context had changed. Although production costs remain an important factor for the sector’s profitability, the trend in olive oil prices is primarily determined by oil availability, inventory levels, the recovery of global consumption, and the outlook for the upcoming harvest.
Below, we analyze the main factors currently influencing the olive oil market, ranked according to their impact on price formation.
Production, availability, and demand: Key market drivers
The evolution of olive oil prices is determined, to a large extent, by the balance between available supply and global demand. However, this balance does not depend solely on the volume of oil produced each season, but also on accumulated inventories, the pace of sales, and expectations regarding future harvests.
Supply: A recovery that brings greater stability
After two marketing years marked by exceptionally low production due to drought, the 2025/26 marketing year has consolidated the recovery in olive oil supply. Spain maintains its position as the world’s leading producer and exporter, with sufficient volume to supply both the domestic market and major international markets.
This improvement in production, combined with the gradual recovery of carryover stocks, has helped ease the market tensions that characterized the past few years. Unlike in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 crop years, when oil shortages drove prices to historically high levels, the greater availability of the product has led to a more balanced price trend.
However, supply remains particularly sensitive to climatic factors such as rainfall, extreme temperatures, or heat waves during flowering and fruit development. Similarly, production in other major producing countries, such as Turkey, Tunisia, Greece, Portugal, and Italy, continues to play a key role in balancing the international market, as greater global availability can put downward pressure on prices, while a simultaneous reduction in harvests tends to have the opposite effect.
Demand: A market that is growing again
Global demand has also undergone significant changes in recent years. The high prices recorded between 2023 and much of 2024 led to a slowdown in consumption in many markets, especially among price-sensitive consumers and in countries where olive oil competes directly with other vegetable oils.
As prices gradually return to normal, consumption is beginning to recover both in traditional markets and in countries where olive oil continues to gain ground thanks to its nutritional benefits and the growing demand for healthy products. Europe continues to account for a very significant share of global consumption, while markets such as the United States, Canada, and various Asian countries maintain a growing interest in extra virgin olive oil.
In this context, the market’s evolution will depend on the ability to balance a more abundant supply with a sustained recovery in demand. If both factors evolve in tandem, the sector will be able to move toward a more stable scenario, reducing the high volatility that has characterized the olive oil market over the past few marketing years.
Production costs: A key factor in the sector’s profitability
Production costs remain a fundamental element in understanding trends in the olive oil market. However, unlike a few years ago, when inflation and rising energy costs were the focus of much attention, today it is necessary to analyze the overall cost structure faced by producers.
Olive cultivation and olive oil production require significant investment in labor, machinery, fuel, fertilizers, plant protection products, irrigation water, electricity, packaging materials, and transportation. Changes in all these factors determine the actual cost of production and, consequently, the price level needed to ensure the economic viability of olive farms.
In this regard, the updated 2026 Olive Cultivation Cost Study, prepared by the Spanish Association of Olive-Growing Municipalities (AEMO), confirms that production costs have risen significantly in recent years. According to this study, the average cost of producing olive oil has increased by approximately 57% since 2020 and by nearly 12% compared to the 2023 update, reflecting the cumulative impact of rising labor costs, mechanization, agricultural inputs, energy, and other operating expenses.
The report also highlights that there is no single production cost for the entire sector. Profitability varies considerably depending on the cultivation model. While intensive and hedgerow olive groves have significantly lower costs thanks to a higher degree of mechanization, traditional olive groves, especially those that cannot be mechanized, incur much higher production costs, which in many cases exceed current market prices.
Therefore, although changes in supply and demand remain the main factor determining the price of olive oil, production costs set the minimum threshold for profitability in the sector. Analyzing only the price at the source without considering how much it costs to produce each kilogram of oil would provide an incomplete picture of the economic reality of Spanish olive groves.
Trade policies and currency fluctuations
Furthermore, trade policies and currency fluctuations are crucial factors in the dynamics of olive oil prices and competitiveness in the international market.
Trade policies include both the tariffs and taxes imposed by importing countries and the trade agreements that facilitate or restrict olive oil’s access to certain markets. While during 2024 and early 2025 the main concern for international operators was the uncertainty generated by the Trump administration’s potential imposition of new tariffs on imports from the European Union, the trade landscape has evolved significantly. Although trade tensions between the United States and the EU continue to shape international trade, the market has shifted from a phase of uncertainty regarding potential protectionist measures to a context in which companies and exporters must adapt to a more complex and ever-changing trade environment, marked by new agreements, tariff revisions, and increasing market diversification.
In this context, the European Union’s trade policy plays a key role. Free trade agreements not only reduce tariff barriers but also facilitate access to markets with high growth potential. A notable example is the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, which provides for the gradual reduction of tariffs on European olive oil in countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, thereby improving the competitiveness of European producers in a region where consumption continues to grow.
At the same time, international trade continues to be shaped by a changing geopolitical environment. The evolution of trade relations between the European Union and the United States, changes in tariff policies, and tensions along certain logistics routes can affect both export costs and companies’ business planning. In this context, market diversification has become an essential strategy for reducing risks and strengthening the stability of exports.
Another key factor is the evolution of exchange rates. As the world’s leading exporter of olive oil, Spain sells a very significant portion of its production in international markets, so currency fluctuations directly influence the competitiveness of its exports.
The exchange rate between the euro and the dollar remains the primary benchmark for international trade. A weaker euro against the dollar generally boosts the competitiveness of European olive oil in markets where transactions are conducted in that currency. However, its influence extends beyond the U.S. market. In Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan, the performance of the South Korean won and the Japanese yen is closely linked to the strength of the dollar in international financial markets. When the dollar appreciates significantly, these currencies tend to depreciate against it, which can reduce the purchasing power of Asian importers and make imports of European olive oil more expensive. Conversely, a more favorable exchange rate trend between the euro and Asian currencies can improve the competitiveness of Spanish olive oil and promote export growth to these markets.
Thus, trade policies and exchange rate fluctuations can cause significant variations in olive oil prices, forcing producers and distributors to adapt their pricing and distribution strategies to maintain their position in international markets.
Harvest quality: A determining factor in the price of olive oil
Finally, the quality of the annual olive harvest is a determining factor in the value and price of olive oil in local and international markets. This quality depends on several factors, most notably climatic conditions.
Conditions such as the amount and distribution of rainfall, temperatures, and extreme weather events, such as frosts or heat waves, directly influence the ripening and condition of the olives. When conditions are optimal, high-quality fruit is produced, allowing for the production of extra virgin olive oils, which command higher demand and market value. Conversely, years of drought or poor weather conditions tend to result in a harvest with less desirable organoleptic characteristics, leading to lower-quality oils, such as lampante oils, which must be refined and therefore command a lower price.
The 2025/26 season is a good example of this relationship. After a favorable start to the season, heavy rains in October and November across much of Spain’s major olive-growing regions made it difficult to access many farms and forced a delay in the harvest in many areas. As a result, some of the olives remained on the tree longer than expected or fell to the ground before being harvested, affecting both the yield and the final quality of the oil produced.
This delay had a particularly significant impact on the production of extra virgin olive oil. The increased ripeness of the fruit, combined with the rainfall and, subsequently, low temperatures in some areas, reduced the percentage of oils that achieved the highest commercial grade and increased the relative share of virgin and lampante oils. This demonstrates that a season with high production does not necessarily guarantee greater availability of top-quality oils.
In addition to weather conditions, quality depends on other factors such as the olive variety, the fruit’s health, the time elapsed between harvest and milling, and the conditions under which the oil is stored. All these elements influence parameters such as acidity, oxidative stability, and the organoleptic characteristics that distinguish a high-quality extra virgin olive oil.
For this reason, the market values not only the quantity of oil produced but also the proportion of extra virgin olive oil obtained in each harvest season. In years when weather conditions reduce the availability of higher-quality oils, price differences between the various commercial categories tend to widen, reflecting the greater demand for oils with better sensory and physicochemical characteristics.
Thus, in a multifactorial context such as this, price forecasts are periodically adjusted to reduce the margin of error in the estimates. Below, we analyze in detail the evolution of olive oil prices:
Olive oil price trends
Olive oil prices have trended steadily upward in recent years, primarily due to fluctuations in weather conditions and production costs, particularly energy costs.
Below, Aceites de las Heras presents the trends in olive oil prices from 2021 to the present:
- 2021: The average price of olive oil remained between €4 and €5 per kilogram, in a market that was still feeling the effects of the recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. The gradual reopening of the economy, the recovery of the HORECA sector, the return of tourism, and the revival of international trade once again boosted olive oil consumption both in Spain and in major export markets.
From a supply perspective, the season was supported by favorable production and relatively positive weather conditions, which helped maintain an adequate supply and keep price pressures in check. However, during the second half of the year, the first increases in production, transportation, and energy costs began to be felt, along with increasingly robust international demand, factors that contributed to a slight uptick in prices and foreshadowed the shift in trend that would take hold starting in 2022.
- 2022: That year, the average price of olive oil rose to 6–7 €/kg. The price surge began after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which disrupted Ukrainian exports of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine was one of the world’s leading suppliers, and triggered a shift toward other vegetable oils, including refined olive oil. However, the factor that definitively shaped the market’s evolution was the severe drought that struck Spain’s main production areas during the spring and summer of 2022.
Lower harvest forecasts limited available supply and sparked growing concern about supply for the 2022/23 season. The combination of increased demand for alternative oils and an increasingly compromised olive oil production drove a rapid rise in prices, kicking off a bullish cycle that would continue through subsequent seasons.
- 2023: The upward trend continued, with an average price ranging from 8 to 9 €/kg. Poor weather conditions persisted, affecting both the quantity and quality of available olive oil. This was compounded by high production costs, rising energy prices, and historically low inventories, which drove olive oil prices to unprecedented highs.
- 2024: This year, the average price of olive oil stands between 9 and 11 €/kg, confirming the upward trend. Weather conditions have been erratic, with high temperatures and a prolonged drought during the first few months, followed by heavy rains and a drop in temperatures toward the end of summer. These changes have affected the ripening and quality of the olives, which has once again reduced the availability of high-quality extra virgin olive oil and increased pressure on prices.
- 2025: After reaching record highs the previous year, the market began to show the first signs of normalization. According to data from the European Commission, the price of extra virgin olive oil fell from around €7.4/kg at the start of the season to below €4/kg during the spring of 2025.
Improved weather conditions allowed for a significant recovery in production in Spain and other Mediterranean countries, increasing the availability of olive oil and easing pressure on supply. As a result, the price of olive oil began a clear downward trend, although it remained above the levels seen prior to the supply crisis that began in 2022.
- 2026: During the 2025/26 marketing year, the downward trend gave way to a period of stabilization. Provisional data from the European Commission show that the price of extra virgin olive oil has generally remained between €4.2 and €4.6 per kilogram during the first months of the marketing year, reflecting a much more balanced market thanks to the recovery in production and the increase in inventories. Although these prices are well below the highs recorded in 2023 and 2024, they remain higher than those prior to 2022, indicating that the market has reached a new equilibrium, influenced both by the structural increase in production costs and by international demand that remains strong.
These trends reflect, among other things, the sensitivity of the olive oil market to external factors such as weather conditions, production costs, and available supply. Given that these factors remain uncertain, price volatility is expected to continue in the short and medium term, which will affect both producers and consumers, as well as the product’s competitiveness in global markets.
What is the price of olive oil in Spain today?
The 2025/26 season has marked a shift in the global olive oil market. After two seasons characterized by a severe production shortage and historically high prices, the recovery of harvests in the major producing countries has allowed the balance between supply and demand to be gradually restored.
According to the latest estimates from the International Olive Council (IOC), global olive oil production remains above the average of recent years and is sufficient to meet projected consumption. Spain continues to lead the international market with production nearing 1.3 million metric tons, consolidating its position as the world’s leading producer and exporter, while the European Union as a whole exceeds 1.9 million metric tons. The increase in production has also extended to other Mediterranean countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Tunisia, helping to boost the global supply of olive oil.
In Spain, Andalusia remains the main driver of the olive oil sector, accounting for around 80% of national production, followed by Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura. However, the harvest season also highlighted the significant influence that weather continues to have on the final quality of the oil. Rainfall during the harvest period delayed harvesting in many producing areas and reduced the percentage of extra virgin olive oil produced in some regions.
This recovery in supply has had a direct impact on prices. According to the European Commission’s official data series, the price of extra virgin olive oil at the source fell from levels close to €7.4/kg at the start of the 2024/25 season to around €4.3/kg by the end of the season. During the 2025/26 marketing year, prices have remained relatively stable around that level, reflecting a more balanced market and less volatility than was recorded during the previous two years.
Data from MAPA’s Weekly Price Bulletin for Week 28 of 2026 show that the market continues to adjust, albeit at a gradually slowing pace. Over the past five weeks, the national average price of extra virgin olive oil has recorded a cumulative decrease of 3.03%, now standing below €4/kg. However, weekly fluctuations are becoming increasingly moderate, suggesting that the market is entering a phase of greater stability following the sharp correction from the highs reached in 2023 and 2024.
This price stabilization coincides with a situation in which inventory levels provide sufficient assurance to bridge the transition to the 2026/27 marketing year.
All of this suggests that, barring any significant weather-related incidents during the upcoming harvest, the market could remain relatively stable at the start of the 2026/27 season, with much more moderate fluctuations than those recorded between 2022 and 2024.
Aceites de las Heras’ commitment to optimal quality and fair olive oil prices
At Aceites de las Heras, we are proud to be a company with a long history and a strong commitment to the olive oil industry. The quality of our products and fair pricing are at the heart of our mission. In such a volatile olive oil market, we firmly believe it is essential to ensure fair compensation for every link in the production chain, from the farmer to the distributor, while maintaining an affordable final price for the consumer.
The sector remains increasingly concerned about the profitability of farms, especially traditional olive groves, as current prices, though stable, are at levels that for many producers barely cover production costs. The challenge for the coming months will no longer be solely to ensure market supply, but to strike a balance between competitive prices for consumers and sufficient compensation to ensure the economic viability of farmers and the sustainability of Spanish olive groves.
That is why we are committed to offering consistent, carefully controlled quality, while ensuring that the price of olive oil reflects market demands, production conditions, and our sustainability values. This responsible decision helps us not only to address the challenges posed by rising energy costs, resource scarcity, and climate uncertainties, but also to strengthen the sector’s stability and consumer confidence.
